An evaluation of laryngeal cancer morbidity time trends in Lithuania.

PURPOSE To make assessments of the rates of cases of larynx cancer in Lithuania in the years 1978-2001 as well as possible trends of changes in the future. MATERIAL AND METHODS The data contained in the Lithuanian Cancer Register for the period 1978-2001 about new cases as well as the data compiled by the Lithuanian Department of Statistics on the average number of population of Lithuania within the same period in the same age groups have been used in the course of the study. The data have been standardized by age using direct method, in accordance with the European standard; a regression analysis of larynx cancer case rates was made. RESULTS After standardization of data for the period 1978-2001, tendencies of increase have been registered both among men and women: in 1978 the case rate per 100,000 population was 10.73 among men and 0.26 among women, in 2001 the corresponding data were 11.6 among men and 0.7 among women. Throughout the period the investigated case rate for men was higher than for women. An increasing average age of men and women suffering from this disease has been noticed: average age for men is annually increasing by 0.1566 years and for women--0.0602 years. The forecast for men in the year 2006 is 13.88 cases per 100,000 population and 0.54 for women. CONCLUSIONS The increase of larynx cancer case rates is growing more rapidly among women than among men, and also average age of the patients is increasing. The forecast is that in 2006 the case rate will be growing up, and both men and women will get ill at older age.